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Palo Alto, Calif.-based mostly Hewlett-Packard Co. has developed a brand modern fault-tolerant blade server, the HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem, that analysts sigh is respectable adequate to emulate an IBM mainframe. the brand modern blade combines the high-availability elements of HP Integrity NonStop servers with the cost and power efficiencies of the HP c-classification BladeSystem.
The NonStop NB50000c combines usual, off-the-shelf c-type blade enclosures and blades and provides fault-tolerant aspects: The blade server interconnect within the back of the chassis is in line with the excessive-speed, low-latency interconnect ServerNet for lofty availability, whereas NonStop utility allows for a fault-tolerant ambiance; if an issue arises on one blade, the workloads on it are immediately moved to one more to tarry away from downtime.
The HP choices are designed for IT shops in industries dote monetary capabilities that attempt for zero downtime. "Fault tolerance is for functions that requisite to exist up 24 hours a day and for americans who requisite to convey answers in true time," observed Randy Meyer, the director of NonStop product administration approach at HP. "it's in fact N+1 failover."
The servers additionally characteristic plain HP administration equipment, similar to HP Integrity integrated Lights-Out (iLO) 2 , HP systems insight manager and the Onboard Administrator for HP BladeSystem, and are based on dual-core Intel Corp. Itanium chips (and are suitable with quad-core).as much as eight NonStop blades fit in one chassis, Meyer pointed out.
In assessment, HP's rackmount Integrity Nonstop servers are eight U inordinate and condo 4 single-core processors.
"The [Nonstop] working utility can scale throughout distinctive processors despite the fact it may possibly glean them, so stirring to a blade turned into a ratiocinative exchange," Meyer pointed out. "The gadget is designed in parallel, so that it will occupy up to four,080 blades in a single-device photo. No purchasers occupy gone that gargantuan yet, however they attain occupy customers doing a yoke of thousand."
Jonathan Eunice, a fundamental IT adviser at Nashua, N.H.-based Illuminata Inc., observed HP's resolution to manufacture exercise of blades for fault-tolerant servers is strategic and a friendly view for clients. "HP chose to exercise its BladeCenter design because the groundwork, in line with its approach that every one server designs may soundless circle into extra modular over time. The blade basis offers it some nice attributes, dote incremental add-ons or component protection, larger quantity and, as a consequence, enhanced economics."a reputable mainframe alternative?HP has touted the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem as an excellent alternative platform for legacy mainframes because it runs the equal kinds of purposes at an identical or more desirable efficiency and at subside can charge, Meyer pointed out, citing the Standish group international Inc.'s simultaneous "trends in IT value" file.
Submitted through HP to SearchDataCenter.com, the file indicated that the Integrity NonStop BladeSystem performs the equal tasks as an IBM mainframe at 35% lessen total can saturate of possession and with as much as a 50% subside in saturate per transaction.
Numbers in experiences dote this can moreover exist problematic, and lots of the time, seller claims that their servers are "mainframe category" don't appear to exist credible, but two analysts pointed out that during this case the claims are reliable.
"[HP Integrity NonStop BladeSystem] is the one structure in the industry that in reality has an break at standing as much as, and even surpassing, mainframe reliability," pointed out Eunice. "HP's fault-tolerant structure has been round due to the fact that the Nineteen Eighties, and it runs gigantic stock markets, fiscal transaction methods, telecom analytics and fraud detection systems, and different 'have to barnone the time, always, barnone the time live up' computing."
Ken Cayton, IDC's analysis supervisor for industry systems, spoke of fault-tolerant methods dote HP's Integrity NonStop servers are being adopted in environments where mainframes as soon as would occupy been the most efficacious reply.
"HP's fault tolerant techniques are generally used in mainframe environments or where plain mainframes fail to fulfill availability and reliability necessities," observed Cayton. "the brand modern blade systems can occupy the selfsame capabilities in a modern benign aspect that should soundless exist more reasonable and modular than obsolete methods whereas moreover being more energy efficient."
nonetheless, Eunice mentioned, "HP NonStop and IBM gear z exercise extraordinarily different system designs and styles of operation, and as you could imagine, occupy different strengths, application libraries, and most excellent workloads. They don't appear to exist 1:1 competitors dote HP ProLiant and Dell PowerEdge; you can't flee application for one on the different, say. but they attain goal lots of the selfsame styles of purposes: big transaction processing hubs, say, or giant records analysis applications."
still, HP has do its cash the Place its mouth is; the enterprise is so assured that the modern Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is nearly as friendly – and more desirable – than IBM mainframes that HP has offered the gadget plus a full yr of NonStop platform application to shoppers who resolve to migrate from mainframe architectures. provided through the IT provider industry Logica, the incentive software, is known as NonStop FREEdom.Fault-tolerant programs on the upward push?Cayton mentioned that information facilities' broader exercise of virtualization for consolidation and backup makes inordinate availability more essential and can raise using fault-tolerant techniques.
but it surely's not a digital ambiance that drives the want for fault-tolerant servers however byalongshot the want for even uptime. "expanding transaction volumes [from things like] social-scale exercise of the internet … and increasing exercise of information analytics for fraud detection, company altenative making, random analysis, etc. The underlying exercise cases are unexpectedly growing."
other companies that proffer fault-tolerant servers comprise Stratus technologies and NEC.Availability and pricingThe HP Integrity NonStop NB50000c BladeSystem is accessible nowadays. Pricing begins round $300,000 for a chassis, two blades, drives and memory, and an I/O and power package. a fully configured system runs from $750,000 to $1 million.
tell us what you consider in regards to the story; e mail Bridget Botelho, tidings writer.additionally, cop a glance at their tidings weblog at serverspecs.blogs.techtarget.com.
That got here as section of a document laying out the string of factors that contributed to problems with the Minnesota Licensing and Registration system, called MNLARS. The nonpartisan workplace of the Legislative Auditor on Thursday, Feb. 14, released its 86-page evaluation of the application's rollout, now and then naming friendly officers who were key to its implementation.
both departments tasked with leading the task, the department of Public safety and Minnesota tips technology functions, had essentially a decade and $a hundred million to glean the modern desktop gadget up and running. And that may still've been enough, auditors wrote.
but technical issues, a want of trying out previous to the launch, terrible management and conversation by means of these overseeing the job and an absence of key stakeholders within the determination-making manner barnone avoided a superb roll out.
"ultimately, the Minnesota department of Public defense (DPS) and workplace of Minnesota suggestions know-how capabilities (MNIT) requisite to participate the guilt for the device’s deficiencies," Deputy Legislative Auditor Judy Randall and Joel Alter, director of special reviews, wrote.
In letters protected within the record, DPS and MNIT heads welcomed recommended alterations and designated drudgery they occupy been doing to increase MNLARS relocating forward. And two former MNLARS managers weighed in on the record's assessment that they occupy been partly to blame.
State lawmakers had been brief to voice frustration concerning the findings and convene on the Walz administration to raze down hurdles slowing features for Minnesotans.
Gov. Tim Walz experienced the difficulty firsthand on Thursday, accompanying state Sen. John Jasinski, R-Faribault, to the deputy registrar's workplace to transfer distinctiveness plates from one automobile to an additional. The DFL governor has stated he'll putaquestionto for $15.7 million to uphold repair complications with MNLARS.What came about?
In 2008, Minnesota lawmakers licensed early funding to exchange the existing 30-year-old program used to matter license plates, vehicle titles and license plate tabs with MNLARS.
the first recommended step became to assessment and redecorate enterprise practices to accommodate the modern system, the file spoke of. And while a contractor changed into employed to assist DPS attain this, a 2014 audit discovered that the fork under no circumstances did it.
In 2011, IT specialists in various state groups occupy been consolidated into MNIT. And on the time, leaders there spoke of they didn't occupy the infrastructure to build MNLARS. so that they bid out the venture and decided to drudgery with Hewlett-Packard.
State department heads and HP contractors couldn't attain an agreement on what the suspension product may soundless be. That made it very nearly unimaginable for the contractors to do out a application that may meet the state's expectations, which they described as a stirring target.
In 2014, the state dissolved the shrink after HP supplied two little pieces for the gadget for $18 million.
From there, the state became left to delivery constructing its personal device. alongside the style, officers did cramped to involve key stakeholders, troubleshoot the utility or usher in extra team of workers to drudgery on the gadget full-time.
"MNLARS didn't fail as a result of any single individual or altenative ... there should had been extra advantageous oversight and job governance in region," the report says. "MNIT did not occupy valuable necessities, policies, and techniques for overseeing state agency software tasks, and MNIT leaders gave significant discretion to a little number of managers."
Two managers, Paul Meekin, and Sue Rohde, occupy been chargeable for overseeing the technical components of the venture and, per their job descriptions on the time, they may soundless had been liable for the product they delivered, the auditors wrote.
"In their view, Meekin and Rohde abide a participate of accountability for a portion of the mission shortcomings described in their document," they wrote.
Meekin became positioned on leave in November of 2017 and resigned from MNIT in 2018. Rohde resigned from her MNIT submit in 2017.
In letters covered within the report, the pair defended their drudgery and spoke of extra changes had been mandatory at MNIT.
"The path i used to exist given changed into to attain the highest character I may with a bad situation and convey MNLARS, which I and many other dedicated people accomplished," Rohde pointed out in her letter.What's next?
Representatives from the workplace of the Legislative Auditor shared their findings with lawmakers in a while Thursday. forward of that assembly, legislators had been short to weigh in on the file.
“The audit makes pellucid where the complications lie: ineffective leadership and state companies lacking the appropriate oversight, assistance, and technical capability for such a massive task," state Sen. Scott Newman, R-Hutchinson, mentioned in an announcement.
Newman chairs the Senate Transportation Finance and coverage Committee. He talked about the Legislature should soundless spoil down roadblocks that avoided a a hit MNLARS rollout and drudgery to glean daily operations up to speed.
Walz is decided to unencumber his price purview request next week and he is said he'll putaquestionto for additional money to back DPS add workforce to shorten wait instances. He has no longer yet introduced his longterm plans for MNLARS.
“I don’t believe it’s always a tough ask, nonetheless it’s one which I consider is a friendly model for us that if you’re going to putaquestionto for taxpayer greenbacks, they’re inclined to pay it if they assume it’s objective and they understand the Place it’s going,” Walz informed the Faribault day by day news. “I’m simply making bound that I homage their requests and manufacture it less demanding for them.”
He has additionally waited to nominate an MNIT commissioner and based a council to back find a suitable fit for the do up.
hashish stocks were mixed on Tuesday, amid a flurry of bulletins on the development of scientific and recreational-use bills around the U.S.
Pennsylvania’s medical hashish groups made at least 600,000 transactions in its first year, allowing eighty three,000 sufferers entry to the substance, Gov. Tom Wolf introduced over the weekend. sales totaled more than $132 million with the commonwealth gathering more than $2 million in tax revenue to date.
“Our protest for the subsequent 12 months and beyond is to increase the variety of grower/processors and dispensaries operating, to register even more physicians and to proceed the growth of their scientific, medically based software,” fork of fitness Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine mentioned in a press release.
For now, the medial hashish software has given makes it possible for to 25 grower/processors and 50 dispensaries throughout Pennsylvania.
New Jersey has moved closer to legalizing weed for leisure exercise with Gov. Phil Murphy and state legislative leaders accomplishing a deal in principle on a route to tax and adjust the market, according to NJ.com, a marketing agency and indigenous information issuer. The website spoke of the proposed bill would tax hashish by means of the ounce, in preference to imposing a flat revenue tax that state Senate President Stephen Sweeney opposed.
For barnone of MarketWatch’s insurance of hashish organizations, click on perquisite here.
Don’t leave out: canopy boom co-CEO reveals proper priorities for world’s biggest prison marijuana enterprise
Lawmakers occupy been unable to accord a framework for a felony market, amid issues that falling weed expenses would slash back the amount of tax revenue the state may compile an issue encountered in different states that occupy legalized. They occupy been additionally at odds over rules, with the modern bill proposing the creation of an impartial fee. The bill would additionally permit for previous convictions for cannabis possession to exist expunged. The invoice should exist handed via both properties of the Democratic-led state legislatures before it can exist signed into legislation.
amongst individual shares, canopy growth Corp. shares CGC, -2.46% WEED, -2.seventy five% fell 2.8% in morning exchange. Benchmark observed the business’s fiscal third-quarter earnings released late final week showed the enterprise profiting from the initial shipments into Canada’s prison adult-use market.
“We anticipate persevered income increase as the company benefits from adult exercise and exotic clinical hashish income, offset byalongshot by route of slower Canadian clinical hashish income as some buyers switch from scientific to grownup use,” analyst Mike Hickey wrote in a note. “We are expecting future product choices, including edibles and beverages, to precipitate up boom in fiscal 2020 and beyond.”
Hickey costs the inventory a purchase with a C$a hundred ($seventy five) cost target, equal to about 38% above its existing trading degree.
See additionally: perquisite here’s why the craft cannabis trade can thrive within the pan of big Marijuana
in different places in the sector, U.S. listed shares of Quebec-based mostly Hexo Corp. HEXO, +2.15% HEXO, +1.forty nine% occupy been flat, after Oppenheimer initiated insurance with an outperform rating and 12 to 18-month inventory price target of $7.00, or about 18% above its current trading degree.
“We typical emerge favorably upon the early efforts through the HEXO administration crew in developing a foundation to develop into a leading global CPG (client packaged items) player in the cannabis category,” analysts led by using Rupesh Parikh wrote in a notice.
The analyst eminent Hexo’s success in organising Canadian infrastructure, in becoming a member of with leading CPG player Molson Coors Brewing Inc. tap, +0.33% and in its early innovations.
“We view the Molson Coors partnership as a gargantuan tremendous pile for the industry and a vote of self belief on the business’s capacity to execute,” Parikh wrote. “we're closely observing the business’s means to land partnerships in different classes reminiscent of cosmetics, edibles, vapes, and so on.”
Hexo shares are trading at a discount to greater friends, many of which continue to savor expanded valuations bolstered by M&A, strategic investments and shortage cost. despite the fact, Oppenheimer referred to given the immature state of the industry, its rating should soundless exist considered as greater speculative than ratings for other CPG companies.
In January, PI fiscal named Hexo one in every of its six even picks for the primary quarter of 2019.
“We accord with the enterprise is neatly placed to become a major player within the hashish-infused beverage house,” analysts Chris Thompson and Philip Ker wrote on the time, assigning the stock a speculative buy rating and 12-month rate goal of $10.
examine now: UK researchers are launching a crucible looking at a cannabis-primarily based therapy for Alzheimer’s
Aurora hashish Inc. ACB, -1.70% ACB, -1.sixty one% shares had been down 0.7%. That enterprise pronounced its newest quarterly revenue ultimate week, pretty much quadrupling revenue but moreover showing big losses and a shrinking margin.
Tilray Inc. shares TLRY, +0.71% were flat, and Cronos group Inc. CRON, +1.50% CRON, +1.eighty one% shares were up 2.5%. Aleafia fitness Inc. became up 1.7%.
The ETFMG altenative Harvest ETF MJ, -0.17% turned into up down 0.four%, and the Horizons Marijuana lifestyles Sciences ETF HMMJ, +0.33% changed into up 0.5%. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.15% and the Dow Jones Industrial generic DJIA, +0.03% had been flat to a cramped reduce.
See also: Washington strikes nearer to offering protections for banks that drudgery with the pot industry
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FILE- In this July 5, 2018, file photo, smoke rises from a wildfire near Strawberry Reservoir in Utah.
SALT LAKE CITY — After a destructive and expensive wildfire season ultimate year, a House panel advanced a resolution urging the federal government to pursue policies allowing for better forest management — but only after stripping language that moreover urged the federal government to minimize additional climate change.
The House Natural Resources, Agriculture and Environment Committee voted 11-2 Friday to foster HCR5 to the House floor, largely in uphold of the resolution sponsored Rep. Ray Ward, R-Bountiful, but not going so far as to avow climate change is section of the problem.
Fire seasons in Utah occupy been "exceptionally destructive," the resolution states. ultimate year alone, the state saw over 480,000 acres scorched and 400 structures burned, with firefighting costs estimated to exist $150 million.
Last year, Utah County wildfires forced thousands to evacuate for days, and for weeks after, the Wasatch Front's already impoverished summer air character suffered even more.
Ward said his resolution was to address two issues aggravating Utah's worsening fire seasons: the requisite for better cooperation with federal partners on forest management solutions, as well as acknowledgement of scientific consensus that climate change is true and causing true problems in the U.S. and across the world.
"These are two very censorious things they requisite to try to drudgery with federal partners to manufacture happen for the health of their forests and for their state," Ward said.
But Rep. Tim Hawkes, R-Centerville, motioned to amend the resolution to bare the climate change language, arguing the resolution would find more consensus in the Utah Legislature if it avoided "wading into what I assume are very complicated and difficult questions" and whether the resolution supports "social policies that they might question."
Rep. Phil Lyman, R-Blanding, supported the amendment, saying the climate change language added "a layer of complexity and politics that don't depart along with reducing damage from wildfires."13 comments on this story
That's despite a Weber state University professor, John Armstrong, who said he teaches courses dealing with climate change, urging lawmakers to uphold the connection between climate change and wildfires.
"It's their job to recognize (what) the sciences are telling us," Armstrong said. "This problem is not going away."
Still, Hawkes' amendment passed. Some Republicans soundless opposed Ward's resolution — Rep. Derrin Owens, R-Fountain Green, and Rep. Keven Stratton, R-Orem — but it ultimately gained a conducive recommendation from the committee.
The resolution now goes to the House floor.
They depart by many names—business-managed applications (BMAs), user-developed controls, among others. Their labels are as bespoke as the tasks they do. But it’s what they participate in common that makes them stand out. They are inevitable. Annoying. Seemingly unavoidable. And, perhaps most of all: they are spreading.
For many banking institutions, these BMAs and controls occupy grown out of addition—and operational improvisation. Newly-developed industry units, acquisition flurries, and tangles of reporting requirements introduced over the post-crisis period—all of these occupy left them managing the perplex of reconciliation with legacy processors that aren’t designed for this era. As a result, banks occupy developed workarounds—typically housed in spreadsheets well outside the purview of an enterprise data management framework—to manually complete the drudgery that their systems cannot. These applications and controls will typically number into the thousands. Earlier this year, one global bank reported having roughly 60,000 of these running—or around one BMA for every four people working there.
That ought to exist hard to attain at a solid employing almost a quarter of a million people, and whether giant or not, firms are realizing that BMA proliferation isn’t the perquisite answer. Coping with this is one of the leading drivers for the modern enterprise efforts at control, including at boardroom level, that occupy gained steam in 2018. For modern control chiefs and their teams, identifying the root of the problem isn’t difficult; the mischance comes in sniffing out the many BMAs that now riddle reconciliation processes; understanding the technology problem that has caused them; and just as complicated, finding the perquisite data-centric solution for solving that problem (rather than potentially just making it worse).
Fixed Models Fail
Many of these apps and controls grow out of a combination of circumstances. To launch with, they will gird trading of instruments, products or transactions with modern intricate attributes that existing systems simply weren’t designed for—and can’t handle. In addition, these situations will often involve markets where automation around trade confirmation and settlement isn’t well-developed, or fully agreed and standardized. At the extreme, this can affect reaching as far back as emailing key documents, or using a fax, to receive key data and then inputting it in by keystroke. There is a sense of “this is already slow; why bother at all?”
For those that attain bother, they find their legacy vendors will cop many—often months—to device out how to configure and implement the modern control, and given the machinations already involved, that is quite simply too long. It comes down to the fixed data models they are strapped with. Most of this time is spent writing and using ETL (extract, transform, load) tools to properly prepare and tow in the modern data, and manufacture it translatable for matching processes. Unsurprising, then, that bank operations personnel will Come up with their own fixes—not only to manage transaction data and attributes, but incorporate derived data calculations, conditional logic, and customer-specific enrichment processes pulling from another security master or other reference data. As often, what is intended to exist a temporary BMA becomes barnone too permanent.
Structured Products, Sec Lending
Take two illustrations we’ve recently analyzed: equity-linked notes and securities lending.
The former are structured products, i.e. equity-linked do options or principal-guaranteed notes, and are typically held to maturity. But they will involve a sequence of rules governing conditions of buy-backs, and the relationship of the product’s current value to its underlying. Securities lending, meanwhile, has become increasingly celebrated for borrowers (who will typically exist shorting), lenders (institutions), and sell-side facilitators. Here again, data attributes surrounding the specific obligations of a three-party lending arrangement requisite to exist accurately consumed and reconciled, including combined balance and transaction validation.
Implementing an Excel-based or AVTL control around either of these examples involves numerous challenges, and creates some of its own. Buying an ELPO or lending out stock requires significantly more initial workflow than trading in a liquid market or conventional asset movements. Processing the data associated with these activities is clunky and bound to generate exceptions that requisite to exist effectively managed. And being able to accurately assess the risk they pose against the broader balance sheet is both intricate and increasingly important, sense they must exist accessible and plugged into systems across the institution. barnone of this serves to both complicate reconciliation processes, and heighten their consequences.
Beyond these examples, the selfsame issues apply to a wider spectrum of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. To pile the flavors and transactions up—across desks and industry units, over time and with modern controls potentially being generated for even a single transaction—it isn’t difficult to view how BMAs become troublesome. At the largest institutions, they can require millions in annual operating cost to prop up, and add significant operational risk.
While they may exist purpose-fit to today’s transaction, the problem with surviving on BMAs is that they rarely anticipate what comes next or, for that matter, properly integrate into broader enterprise control and compliance. The stronger approach to dealing with legacy shortcomings, and the scourge of BMAs left in their wake, is to interpolate technology that can exist implemented both far more quickly and sustainably: by deploying smarter heuristics and training data models to fit the control requirement in an ongoing agile process, with built-in documentation around the transformation process from initial input to reconciliation engine.
Like most resolutions, too many BMAs spell trouble. Retiring these controls would exist a remarkable start for 2019.
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The recent proposal of a "Green modern Deal" ("GND") by a brand-new (millennial) member of Congress has been endorsed as a concept by many Progressives, including a number of presidential hopefuls (cf. National Public Radio, 2019; Zack Colman, 2019; Ari Natter & Billy House, 2019). It is being presented to Congress as a non-binding resolution (House Resolution 109; Government Printing Office, 2019), and it will probably pass in the House (perhaps by voice vote?), since it carries no weight as a resolution, beyond allowing some political positioning. However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will require an on-the-record vote for the version being presented to the Senate. The resolution is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian contrivance to cop over or increase the regulation of much of the economy (specifically, barnone of the healthcare, energy, and utility sectors; section of the true estate sector; section of the manufacturing industry (industrial sector); barnone of the transportation industry (industrial sector); section of the agriculture industry; and section of the forestry industry. This is barnone in the service of "clean and renewable energy;" "millions of high-wage jobs;" something vague called "justice;" another vague concept called "equity;" and the "prevention of unfair competition;" etc. This would imply direct government intervention and/or modern regulation of at least 36% of the economy.
Some occupy argued that this is merely a Progressive wish list for the 2020 election, and not really a earnest proposal. Some conservatives, however, assume it may exist a Trojan Horse for the eventual adoption of "full-on socialism," whatever that means (e.g., Jarrett Stepman, 2019). They will return to the definition of "socialism" shortly. The "GND" has already been criticized as lacking scientific uphold for its approach to the energy sector (e.g., James Temple, 2019; Jesse Jenkins & Samuel Thernstrom, 2019). The transportation section of the "GND" resolution moreover took a hit within days after its announcement when California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom slash the state's commitment to its high-speed rail project from 520 miles to just 150 miles. This comes amidst huge cost overruns ($77-98 billion projected cost vs. an original assay of $40 billion) and substantial time delays on the dream project of former Governor Jerry Brown, which has been a rolling administrative calamity for a decade (Chuck DeVore, 2019).
Prominent industry magnate, long-time Democratic donor, and potential Independent candidate for President Howard Schultz, has roundly criticized the "GND" as completely "unrealistic." He has moreover pointed out that the funding of this grandiose contrivance would exist based on "punitive" taxes and impossibly big federal deficits of as much as $40-50 trillion (Naomi Lim, 2019). A few economists dote Glenn Hubbard of Columbia University assume the contrivance is so impractical that it will exist "dead on arrival" (Bill McColl, 2019). Many people from barnone across the political spectrum (including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [D-CA], quoted by Adam Shaw, 2019) assume it is either a pie-in-the-sky dream or an outright farce do together by a starry-eyed company of incompetents (e.g., Timothy P. Carney, 2019). Labor unions occupy even expressed reservations about the potential repercussion of the contrivance on jobs (Valerie Volcovici, 2019).
Many Progressives and "socialists" subscribe to the notion that the economy is a "fixed pie," sense they believe that if one group (e.g., the 1%, or mega-wealthy) gains an odds or makes a disproportionate amount of money, their gains occupy Come directly at the expense of others (cf. heed J. Perry, 2006). This zero-sum approach may exist a natural route to think, but it is not accurate. As Nobel Laureate economist Milton Friedman opined, "Most economic fallacies derive from the tenor to assume that there is a fixed pie; that one party can gain only at the expense of another." Economists proved long ago that this is absolutely not the case (cf. Robert J. Barro, 2000; Chelsea Follett, 2015; Matt Palumbo, 2015). Indeed, the world's flush of extreme poverty has declined since 1970 simultaneously with a global increase in wealth inequality, because the pie itself got bigger (Charts 1 & 2).
Chart 1: People live in Extreme Poverty Now the Lowest Ever
Chart 2: Global Wealth Inequality Has Grown Since 1980
Under the "fixed pie" fallacy, President Trump has claimed that a negative trade balance means that China is stealing the negative balance from us (they are stealing from us, but not in that way). Also, under this fallacy, Democrats of a certain stripe believe that when Jeff Bezos and Amazon (AMZN) manufacture gargantuan money and pay no income taxes due to their deductions for huge capital investments, the money was directly taken out of the hands of government and taxpayers. Likewise, when Amazon recently negotiated a $3 billion tax incentive deal in modern York, a bevy of modern York Democrats opposed the deal because that (theoretical, or contingent tax accounting incentive) money should occupy been given to someone else (cf. Becket Adams, 2019). The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant as well in the wording of House Resolution 109 proposing the "GND."
Investors requisite to pay close attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could rock back the other route quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and deep recession; 2) a return to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would comprise a return to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But barnone of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my sentiment (Kevin Wilson, 2018a; Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Kevin Wilson, 2019b). If the political pendulum swings left in 2020, investors will exist treated to a remarkable deal of mistrust and a major market drawdown. Because of the crony capitalism that would exist built into the "GND" (more on this below), there would exist a surge in most technology and many green energy stocks over time. However, the conventional energy, utility, healthcare, and transportation sectors would likely exist absolutely pummeled. The banking industry would moreover likely suffer from greatly increased regulation.What Might happen on the route to Utopia?
With respect to the specific goals of the "GND," there are two likely political outcomes in the near term, according to Timothy P. Carney (2019; Op. cit.): 1) the thing fails to achieve lift-off in practical political terms because of its combination of fantasy federal budgets, a breathtaking grab for power over the economy, unscientific energy supply goals, and extremely expensive and impractical environmental goals; or 2) the deal will pass in some watered-down contour because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." Don't glean me wrong, the Republicans devotion "crony capitalism" just as much as Democrats do, and they occupy long practiced it (Michael D. Tanner, 2015), but they convene it a different thing than "government investing in industry."
Indeed, the list of corporate welfare and "crony capitalist" laws from both parties in recent years is impressive: Obamacare's annual uphold of health insurance companies to cover their losses in 2014-2016; the "TARP" bailout of supposedly regulated and/or insured banks in 2008 (almost barnone paid back however); the auto industry bailout in 2009 (not barnone paid back); huge energy sector subsidies (e.g., Chart 3); the Fed's annual payments to banks for their reserves (Chart 4) and huge annual agricultural subsidies (e.g., the ethanol requirement for motor fuels, and subsidies for growing corn; Chart 5). The "crony capitalist" abuse by both parties has historically been so big it is measured cumulatively in trillions of dollars (cf. Rand Paul, 2017; Cato Institute, 2017; Andrew Wilford, 2019). And, this doesn't weigh the administrative state's (read: Federal Reserve's) suppression of market prices over the ultimate ten years, which is a de facto rejection of "capitalism" in favor of something else (Kevin Wilson, 2019a; Op. cit.).
Chart 3: Taxpayers Paying $14 B in Subsidies to Electric Utilities in 2019
Chart 4: Taxpayers Payed Banks $38 B for Their Reserves in 2018
Chart 5: Taxpayers occupy Paid Over $395 B in Farm Subsidies Since 1996
This second ("crony capitalist") possibility for the "GND" is really not barnone that much different than what they saw under President Obama's "green stimulus," the $90 billion semi-boondoggle that was rolled into the 2009 emergency stimulus ("ARRA") bill (cf. Michael Grunwald, 2019). On the positive side, it was characterized by many modern solar and wind projects and big modern energy research efforts, many of which were moderately successful in producing an uptick in renewable energy projects, although at pretty lofty cost (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015). However, on the negative side, the "green stimulus" was moreover characterized by the government actively choosing corporate "winners" and "losers," and it famously helped facilitate minor disasters dote the bankruptcy of solar solid Solyndra for a loss of $528 million to the government (Wikipedia, 2019a), and the bankruptcy of vehicle battery solid A123 Systems after an "investment" by the US of $249 million (Wikipedia, 2019b). The explosion of "green-collar" jobs that the Obama Administration touted as section of its "green stimulus" didn't really happen either, although a low increase in "green" jobs did occur (Luis Mundaca & Jessika Luth Richter, 2015; Op. cit.; Michelle Chen, 2014). It is unknown whether there was any net increase in jobs. The cost of creating the modern jobs was something dote $479,000 per job, using the above-cited analysis by Mundaca & Richter and the $92 billion cost for the program. So, to the extent that the modern "GND" resembles the obsolete Obama "green stimulus," there are reasons for some skepticism about its ultimate effectiveness."Socialism" Means Different Things to Different People
Now, it makes a certain amount of sense to me that some people relate "crony capitalism" as merely "socialism lite," based on the actual practices of "socialist" countries (e.g., Byron Schlomach, 2018). In other words, there is commonly a government-business nexus in "socialist" countries dote China or Venezuela that results in the crushing of competition and the rewarding of corporations that are friendly to the regime (Wikipedia, 2019c). Still, I would squabble that "crony capitalism" as practiced by Republicans could moreover exist termed "diminished capitalism," because it doesn't operate competitively enough, and prices are not set by the markets lonely (John Stossel, 2012).
The administrative state's uphold (from both parties) for private firms is nothing new, however, as tax preference items for little businesses and big corporations built into the Internal Revenue Code will likely amount to $6.121 trillion (Chart 6) over the ten-year epoch from 2017 to 2026 (Veronique de Rugy, 2017). The ever-expanding size of "transfer payments to individuals" in the federal budget, which occupy now risen to $2.189 trillion per year (Chart 7), is moreover a note that there are tough "socialist" (or at least expansive welfare state) tendencies already built into the system. The question is whether this really constitutes a drift towards full-strength "socialism," or something else. As I listen to the renewed debate over the merits of "socialism," I find it a bit distracting that many people occupy quite different definitions of what "socialism" is, especially compared to the people they are talking to or trying to influence (Chart 8). At this point then, it behooves us to define what is really meant by the term "socialism" (cf. George Peterson, 2016).
Chart 6: Projected Huge Costs of Federal Tax Preference Items For Corporations and Individuals (2017-2026)
Chart 7: Exponential Growth of Federal Transfer Payments To Individuals
Chart 8: What's in a Name?
According to Wikipedia, "socialism" can exist defined as: "a purview of economic and convivial systems characterized by convivial ownership and workers' self-management of the means of production as well as the political theories and movements associated with them" (Wikipedia, 2019d). Because "socialism" is really a broad spectrum of systems, determining whether a country or party is "socialist" depends on the degree to which the means of production and distribution are owned or regulated by the state, and the degree to which the state indulges in giving resources away "for free" (Council of Economic Advisors, 2018). Thus, there are many varieties of "socialism," but they drop mainly into: 1) market forms; and 2) non-market forms.
"Non-market socialism" has the goal of avoiding the presumed inefficiencies and fitful crises associated with capital accumulation and the profit system of "capitalism." It tries to achieve this by eliminating private property, markets, and other aspects of "capitalism" in favor of state-determined allocations and distributions. Experiments with this contour of "socialism" occupy generally met with outright calamity (e.g., China before 1980; Russia before 1998; North Korea since 1950; Cuba since 1962; and Venezuela since 1999; cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). So-called "market socialism" retains the exercise of at least some market prices and even, sometimes, the operation of a profit motive, but with more worker and/or government control on the distribution of those profits than is seen in "free-market capitalism." The countries of Eastern Europe that occupy been transitioning away from "communism" since 1989 might exist examples of "market socialism" (Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2014; Lili Bayer, 2018). Failures here (cf. Chart 9) are a bit harder to spot; for example, Slovenia, Estonia, and Poland occupy nearly matched Spain's success, and barnone three occupy matched or outperformed Portugal and Greece. Not stellar, but much better than relatively unreformed economies dote those of Serbia, Ukraine, and Moldova.
Chart 9: Eastern European GDP Per Capita Vs. Nordic Countries, Iberia, and Germany
There is an controversy (i.e., the "socialist calculation" debate) within "socialism" about how to allocate resources in the absence or partial absence of market prices and private ownership of the means of production and its distribution (cf. David Miller, 1991; David Gordon, 1996). This controversy is difficult to settle because economic models and historical analyses occupy been built generally on assumptions about the conduct of the end-members in the political spectrum, i.e., "pure" versions of "free-market capitalism" and "socialism" (e.g., Patrick Tyrell, 2018), although some attempts occupy been made to cop theories and models up the middle of the road via "market socialism" (e.g., Pranab Bardhan & John E. Roemer, 1992). One aspect of the "socialist calculation" is the problem that arises when there is mistrust about policy in an economy that is centrally controlled, without the known planning advantages that derive from information provided by "free" market prices and private ownership decisions.
For example, how should the administrative state in China manufacture economic decisions now, given the currently remarkable policy mistrust (Chart 10) that has arisen due to a rapidly changing political and economic environment? By supposedly abandoning unproductive government stimulus spending, but nevertheless refusing to depart "full capitalist" either, will the Chinese leadership skip along the edge of the economic abyss created by their massive credit bubble, but effectively never fall? I would guess that there will exist a earnest problem, and that China will actually drop into the abyss (Kevin Wilson, 2018b). Indeed, is the Chinese government's goal of combining major economic reforms with the retention of absolute centralized control over the economy even remotely realistic? Turning to the US under "crony capitalism," and based on the massive interference of the Federal Reserve in the US markets and economy over the ultimate decade, there is huge mistrust now associated with trying to return to "normal" (Chart 11). Is it realistic for us to assume they will gain their goal of exiting their regime of low rates and huge Fed balance sheets without any major consequences? I am unafraid that the impending global recession will trap us unprepared, and they will return to extreme monetary policies very shortly (Kevin Wilson, 2018c).
Chart 10: Chinese vs. Global Policy mistrust Indexes
Chart 11: US Policy mistrust Index
SourceIf Not "Pure Socialism," Then What?
I believe that the current debate over the "GND" is not really about a shift towards "pure socialism" but is rather about a benign of creeping drift towards either: 1) a version of "market socialism;" or 2) something called "democratic socialism." These labels appear a cramped vague, but if I understand them correctly, the former term refers to the retention of some market pricing and privately-held means of production in an otherwise moderately "socialist" system (as already discussed), whereas the latter term refers to a democratically controlled (non-Stalinist) scamper to a moderately or perhaps even strongly "socialist" system (Wikipedia, 2019e). It would emerge that these two forms of "socialism" are not mutually exclusive then, at least in the near term. In any case, the stated goal of American Democratic Socialists dote Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka "AOC") is to promulgate punitive taxes on the loaded ("from each according to his ability"), and give away a lot of "free" stuff dote college education, healthcare, or even perhaps "UBI" ("to each according to his needs"), just as Karl Marx suggested long ago (Karl Marx, 1875).
I occupy already mentioned the extreme repercussion on the federal budget such a scamper to "democratic socialism" would have. It would moreover likely cause remarkable economic harm, both because of the massive increase in total debt (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018d), and because of huge disincentives to drudgery or succeed (cf. Bob Funk, 2014). There would moreover likely exist earnest economic inefficiencies in such a system (cf. David Miller, 1991; Op. cit.; Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.). Plus, there emerge to exist certain "authoritarian" aspects to the "GND" and similar ideas, at least as it is defined by scholars dote Juan Linz (cf. Wikipedia, 2019f). Thus, the Democratic Socialists, through the means of a "GND," emerge to be: 1) seeking a basis for legitimacy in emotional appeals to fight easily recognized societal problems such as "climate change" (despite the relatively friendly record of the US in controlling emissions; cf. Chart 12) using the expanded power of the state; and 2) seeking to Place constraints on corporate special interest groups but not on union or Progressive lobbyists (Tim Wyatt, 2019). By my calculation, the scamper towards a "GND" and "democratic socialism" would easily fullfil two of the four criteria used by academic scholars to define "authoritarianism." If the Bush, Obama and Trump presidencies are any examples, a third criterion may moreover already occupy been met: that of informally defined executive authority with vaguely delineated specific executive powers (cf. Erin Hawley, 2016; Elizabeth Goitein, 2017; Jonathan Turley, 2019).
Chart 12: The gargantuan Increases in Global CO2 Emissions Since 2005 Did Not Come From the US or Europe
One true concern I occupy on this file is about the openly expressed goal of Democratic Socialists and Progressives to cop over and/or heavily regulate major parts of the US economy. They occupy only to recollect those fine, lofty performance (I'm being sarcastic) government programs and bureaucracies like: 1) the "VA" (wildly dysfunctional); 2) Obamacare, aka the "ACA" (greatly increased healthcare costs and loss of choice; cf. Chart 13); 3) the "EPA" (decline in enforcement actions [Chart 14] and a huge backlog of Superfund sites; cf. Jessica Morrison, 2017); and 4) the Dept. of Education (huge cost increases for cramped benefit; cf. Chart 15) to gain a sense of perspective on the merits of more government control of the economy. They can moreover recall those truly spectacular episodic government failures, dote the 9/11 attacks or the remarkable fiscal Crisis, to feel a profound sense of foreboding about where this trend towards more intrusive (and ever incompetent) government could cop us (cf. Meghan Foley, 2018). It doesn't matter much at barnone which party is proposing this "GND" idea, because both believe in gargantuan government and an expansive administrative state, and both occupy fumbled the ball many times. Not only that, this scamper towards a polity best termed a "market socialist state" has already been in motion for many years anyway.
Chart 13: gargantuan Increases in Healthcare Premiums under the "ACA" (2010-2018)
Chart 14: abrupt Decline in "EPA" Enforcement Actions Since 2009
Chart 15: abrupt increase in Spending on Education, to cramped Effect
SourceThe Road to Hell Is Paved With friendly Intentions
The biggest economic problem in America in recent decades has arguably been the decline of the Middle Class as the returns to capital occupy soared, while the returns to labor (Chart 16) occupy stagnated (Kevin Wilson, 2017a). This has been a natural outcome of globalization, as a result of which over a billion modern workers entered the global drudgery oblige in the ultimate three decades or so. Because of the increased labor supply (and conducive tax treatment), US companies had tough incentives to scamper operations overseas to obtain the cheap labor. However, due to inadequate uphold for globalization's losers (i.e., workers in certain US industries), there is a remarkable deal of understandable resentment amongst these people regarding the route the "capitalist" (really, "crony capitalist") system works (Amina Dunn, 2018). This has not been improved by the massive fiscal bailouts and permanent job losses associated with the remarkable fiscal Crisis, nor by the widespread perception that Congress is so debase that it is completely dysfunctional and will not attain anything whatsoever about growing wealth inequality (Kevin Wilson, 2016; Kevin Wilson, 2017b). President Trump's election partially resulted from barnone of this frustration with the status quo ante, but there is cramped note today that their troubles with wealth inequality (Chart 17) are over.
Chart 16: The Returns to Labor occupy Stagnated
Chart 17: Wealth Inequality Back to Where It Was In the 1920s
The danger (in my opinion) is that when the next recession arrives, and especially if it turns out to exist a severe one (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2019c), a modern wave of infuriate and frustration will likely drive a renewed surge in Middle Class populism. This drift towards a more motivated brand of populism could theoretically lead to the landslide re-election of President Trump (in one possible but fairly unlikely scenario). But, alternatively, if the swear of a better life under Trump is perceived to occupy been unfulfilled, it could lead instead to the rejection of Trump and the Republicans, and the election (as yet another act of desperation by the electorate) of a Democrat who got their party's nomination by making gargantuan promises to the Progressives (e.g., Elizabeth Warren's backers), the Socialist Democrats (e.g. Bernie Sanders' backers, or "market socialists") and the Democratic Socialists (e.g., Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's backers, or just plain "socialists"). If they assume for the purposes of controversy that the Democrats carry the day in 2020, they can anticipate a gargantuan propel for at least some of the major tenets of "market socialism," "democratic socialism," or "socialist democracy" discussed above.
So, the problems from such a gargantuan rock of the political pendulum are not just the short-term practical ones that will torment Republicans and Conservatives because they will lose power and today's Progressives and "socialists" will gain control of the political agenda. I assume the economic and political theories that may exist do to a test by the Left occupy the potential to profoundly change their theory of government for decades to come. Since Democrats occupy not settled which benign of "socialism" they want, they may glean a hybrid monster of unknown utility and highly questionable efficacy. That change could thus exist far more problematic for the entire country than a single presidential election victory by one side or the other might normally imply. In other words, I assume the "socialist" Left has friendly intentions and the will to succeed, but they want any true understanding of what's wrong or how to fix it. I'm not suggesting that the Republicans occupy the answers either, but I assume they are less inclined to cast out the baby with the bath water. Indeed, their partisan politics perquisite now are in my view just a symptom of the American political disease. That disease (the one that most needs to exist treated perquisite now) is actually the failure of government to unravel most of the major problems affecting the Middle Class for over three decades.
Thus, if the Republicans don't proffer voters some means of escape from the stagnation afflicting the Middle Class, they will very likely lose power; that is, unless voters simply can't stomach the contour of "socialism" being presented to them, and resolve begrudgingly to tarry with Trump and his party, much as they did when they re-elected Nixon (with McGovern as the only true alternative). If the Democrats manufacture pie-in-the-sky promises built on their faith in some contour of "market socialism," and they proffer lots of "free" stuff, and they even Come up with enough economic mumbo jumbo (e.g., "Modern Monetary Theory," or "MMT;" cf. John Mauldin, 2019) to convince the masses that it can barnone exist paid for (through the magic of the federal printing press), they will win an historic victory. If this improbable-sounding outcome (but not much more improbable than Donald Trump's victory) actually happens, it will usher in a modern era of political and economic transformation focused on some new, hybrid contour of "market socialism."
The hard left's intentions will exist to manufacture a better society through the exercise of government power, and to better their undergo of vague, feel-good emotional things dote "justice" and "equity" (as defined by them). I don't know about "justice" and "equity," but I'm quite certain they will exercise government power to glean what they want (just as "FDR" did), and that is exactly the mistake that the Founders were trying to preclude (Roger Pilon, 1995; Robert G. Natelson, 2018). Some people will bounce the Founders' concerns as out of date, but I don't agree. This not only has political implications, it has profound economic implications.
Republicans occupy been trying to counter the renewed enthusiasm for "market socialism" or "socialist democracy" (cf. Council of Economic Advisors, 2018; Op. cit.) by citing the track record for most historical forms of "full-on socialism," which is of course absolutely terrible (e.g., the USSR, China, Venezuela, etc.). However, no one is currently proposing "full-on socialism," although something dote that is the long-term goal (after a transition period) of the Democratic Socialists dote Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Meagan Day, 2018). Socialist Democrats dote Bernie Sanders occupy attempted to rebut the conservative controversy by pointing to the remarkable success achieved by the various Nordic economies in recent decades (cf. Jeffrey Dorfman, 2018), and moreover by noting that Western European economies occupy much less wealth inequality than the US (cf. Chart 18).
Chart 18: Comparison of Wealth Inequality in America vs. Western Europe
The specimen of the Nordic economies (all of which occupy been claimed by Democrats to exist some version of "socialist" democracies) has been the more politically efficacious weapon in the political fight over "socialism," at least so far. It's not clear, however, that this specimen should really exist considered pertinent, given the mixed nature of the evidence. A number of conservatives occupy responded with the counter-claim that these countries are not "socialist" at all, but instead are "capitalist" democracies that simply occupy lofty taxes and very big welfare states (Anthony B. Kim & Julia Howe, 2018; Ethan Lamb, 2019). Certainly, it is hard to interpret away the fact that the Nordic countries score very well on the Index of Economic liberty (Chart 19), which would hardly exist expected under any brand of "socialism" that would appear worthy of the name (e.g., Venezuela; Julia Howe & Patrick Tyrrell, 2018).
Chart 19: Index of Economic liberty for Nordic Countries vs. America and the "UK"
The fact that there are moreover some provocative counterfactuals to consider just makes it harder to attach any benign of simple label to the Nordic countries. For example, Norway's percentage of government workers in its economy is more than double that of the US (Chart 20). The percentage of union workers in the Nordic countries is 6-8x that in the US (Chart 21). The amount of family benefits (as a percentage of GDP) paid out by Nordic countries is 4-5x the amount paid out in the US (Chart 22). At first glance, the tax system in the Nordic countries doesn't emerge to differ much from that of the US (Chart 23), but when one digs a cramped deeper, significant differences emerge (Chart 24). Furthermore, recent (2014) total tax revenues as a percentage of GDP in Denmark exceeded 50%; those in Finland and Sweden were about 44% and 43%, respectively, compared to only about 26% in the US (Chart 25). On the other hand, in contradiction to the "socialist" label applied to the Nordic countries by Bernie Sanders and others, it is a fact that government debt/GDP ratios in the Nordic countries were considerably lower than that of the US in 2015 (Chart 26). This is likely due to a concerted trouble in recent years to circle away from the unbridled spending associated with traditional Nordic government budgets (e.g., Chart 27). Indeed, Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen recently rebutted Sanders with the statement, "I would dote to manufacture one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy" (Ethan Lamb, 2019; Op. cit.). So, it is not at barnone pellucid that the so-called "socialist" paradigm for the Nordic countries is an accurate or objective description of what instead emerge to exist unique "capitalist" economies with lofty taxes and very expansive welfare states, as already described.
Chart 20: Government Workers as Percent of Economy For Nordic Countries vs. US
Chart 21: Workers under Union Contracts in Nordic Countries vs. US
Chart 22: Family Benefits/GDP for European Countries vs. US
Chart 23: Top Marginal Tax Rates (Plus Payroll Taxes) in Nordic Countries Not Much Different than in the US
Chart 24: Top Tax Brackets in Nordic Countries May exist Far More Progressive than They Are in the US
Chart 25: Nordic Countries Total Tax Revenue/GDP
Chart 26: Government Debt/GDP Comparison in 2015
Chart 27: Government Spending Has Fallen Sharply in Sweden
Be that as it may, the coming national debate on the merits of "socialism" will hardly exist decided on the facts of the matter, nor on subtle nuances visible in intricate data sets. No, it is far more likely that the publicly perceived impacts of the coming recession, the degree of wealth inequality, the viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters, and the actions taken by the current administration to ameliorate the problems of the Middle Class, will barnone exist swirled around in the cauldron of public opinion, and the odor and flavor of the stew that is produced will determine the outcome. There is evidence that the public's sentiment of "capitalism" (or at least the "crony capitalism" now practiced) is declining for barnone age groups (Chart 28), but it is held in especially low respect by those under 45 years old. This is hardly shocking, given the repercussion of the remarkable fiscal juncture and declining job availability on this group (e.g., at least one-third of people aged 25-29 live with their parents; Dan Kopf, 2018). Job growth in the recovery has mainly gone to low-paying sectors (Chart 29), and the employment/population ratio is soundless dejected by 4% from its lofty in the year 2000 (Chart 30).
Chart 28: "Capitalism's" Favorability Is Falling in barnone Age Groups
Chart 29: Most US Jobs Added Since 2008 Are in Low-Paying Sectors
Chart 30: Employment/Population Ratio (1990-2017)
The Green modern Deal ("GND," House Resolution 109) is breathtaking in its scope and lays out a Utopian contrivance to cop over or increase the regulation of much of the economy. The influence of the "fixed pie" fallacy is rampant in the wording of House Resolution 109 and in the thinking of "socialists" of every persuasion, and this portends a massive political and economic transformation if Democrats win in 2020. Whether this would exist a friendly thing or a bad thing depends on one's point of view, of course, but there are economic reasons to dread such an outcome. Investors requisite to pay close attention to this issue in the coming years. Just as the election of Donald Trump to the presidency caught almost everyone by surprise, the next election could rock back the other route quite violently. This would probably only occur under certain conditions: 1) an ongoing and deep recession; 2) a return to substantially higher unemployment; 3) a Fed response to the recession that would comprise a return to "QE" and "ZIRP;" and 4) the continued growth of the already huge wealth inequality in the US. But barnone of these things are not only possible, they are likely, in my opinion.
If the Democrats attain win in 2020, the "GND" will pass in some watered-down contour because of its oft-repeated goal of having government "invest in industry," which is a common Democratic euphemism for "crony capitalism." This will exist friendly for certain sectors and industries, such as technology (e.g., Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund [XLK]) and green energy (e.g., Invesco WilderHill cleanly Energy Fund (NYSEARCA:PBW); Invesco Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN)). However, the conventional energy (e.g., Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLE)), utility (e.g., Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLU)), healthcare (e.g., Health saturate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLV)), and transportation (e.g., iShares Transportation average ETF (BATS:IYT)) sectors would likely exist absolutely pummeled. The investment and commercial banking industries (e.g., fiscal Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLF); SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSEARCA:KRE)) would moreover likely suffer from greatly increased regulation and perhaps even concerns about potential breakup of the biggest banks. The viability of "socialist" giveaways to voters will exist tested as well, and that means a huge increase in the deficit (which is already near $1 trillion) and either: 1) an absolute avalanche of newly issued government debt that chokes the market and triggers a sharply dropping dollar and lofty inflation; or 2) outright debt monetization on the "MMT" or Japanese model, but without Japan's advantages. In the Treasury avalanche case, bonds (e.g., iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (NYSEARCA:TLT)) would sell off dramatically. In the debt monetization case, the selfsame bonds would decline in yield and deliver significant capital gains, much as they occupy in Japan for many years (cf. Kevin Wilson, 2018e). I assume debt monetization is by far the more likely scenario.
Disclosure: I am/we are long TLT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I occupy no industry relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is intended to provide information to interested parties. As I occupy no lore of individual investor circumstances, goals, and/or portfolio concentration or diversification, readers are expected to complete their own due diligence before purchasing any stocks or other securities mentioned or recommended. This post is illustrative and educational and is not a specific recommendation or an proffer of products or services. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
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